Planning and forecasting: Strategy or tactic?
With his revolutionary vision and multidisciplinary approach, for many years Willem van den Brink has been considered to be one of the gurus in the field of planning & forecasting in the contact centre sector. After having worked for a long period of time as a sort of "troubleshooter" at the central planning department of Europe's largest outsourcer, Willem became a Senior Consultant in 2005 for a consultancy organisation and more recently became the Founder & Manager of the Traffic Management department, Forecasting & Planning. Mid 2007, with a number of colleagues, Willem was a joint initiator of PlanMen, a Platform for forecasting, planning and pool management.
The 6-step wheel: The supply source for strategic customer contact
As stated, ever more organisations are beginning to realise that their contact centre is a strategic resource and the services offered there are an important instrument for customer satisfaction. Customer satisfaction is one of the most important business drivers in the world of customer contact. However, except for this change of focus within organisations, it is not only the business that is changing, but also the customer. Of course, these changes are inextricably linked to one another, but without starting the discussion about the chicken and the egg , it is clear that there will be ever more opportunities for the customer to have contact with organisations. The customers' requirements are growing and there is clearly a need for a more personal approach. A modern organisation therefore has to move with the changes in order to be able to meet that increased customer expectation.
That will have an impact on the choices that every company has to make with regard to the establishment of processes. In terms of the personnel, there is a capacity requirement for both quality and quantity. Personnel that, therefore, also have to be planned and scheduled. In the modern organisation, the planning, both as a department and as a process, has a central role in the layout of the organisation and in the direction of the organisation as a whole. Often the effect that the planning process has on an optimum balance between quantity, quality, the image and budget is still underestimated. Let alone the internal increase in employee satisfaction.
Responding to the shift in focus, the query by organisations regarding what the "best practices" are in relation to that and which option is the best one for them, there are ever more providers on the market that respond to this growing need. For example, there are organisations that focus on recruitment and the secondment of planners, there are consultancy organisations specialising in planning and forecasting, planners forums on the Internet, etc. Even the Nyenrode Business University has joint ventures with the sector and provides Master Classes about Multichannel Management and professional service provision.
"Your work of tomorrow is our work of today"
In general terms it can be stated that the aforementioned underestimate is a oft-occuring pitfall. Forecasting and planning is a specialism and a widely embracing field. There are important decisions to be made about the position that planning and forecasting should take within an organisation. It is with this insight that many organisations decide to outsource this process, either wholly or in part. If it remains in-house, then the following questions should be asked: How does the forecasting and planning process fit in with the operational processes? How does the process fit in with other staff departments such as Human Resources, Finance, Training and Development, ICT and Marketing? Does the daily management of the operations have to be carried out centrally by the planners, or do the planners solely provide support? How does the feedback take place? In short, what are the roles and responsibilities of the planners?
The most fundamental objective of a plan is to achieve a requested level of service at a cost that is as low as possible. On average, around 60% to 70% of the costs at a contact centre consist of staff costs, which immediately highlights the importance of an efficient planning process.
In essence, the forecasting and planning process comprises 6 parts:
The forecast
Or worded better: A forecast. Often there are several forecasts at different levels for different activities, that serve different goals. A short-term, mid-term and long-term forecast gives an insight into the workload that is expected, the AHT (average handling time) and, not forgetting the expected pool of staff and corresponding gross/net radios and availability. The various goals used for a forecast provide an indispensable foundation for the Planning, HR, Finance, ICT, Marketing and Training & Development departments, with regard to the contact centre. Or as a well-known forecaster once said to his colleague in operations: "Your work of tomorrow is our work of today."
The scheduling
When scheduling, supply and demand for work, Intraday, are balanced with one another as optimally as possible. This results in a schedule for the staff and the operations. Changes to the schedule are also part of this sub-process.
The daily management
Depending on the choice that is made, the daily management can be carried out by the planners, or can be supported by the planners. Where appropriate, a dedicated Traffic Manager is also utilised, who is part of the planning department. Daily management is a necessity, because the implementation of staffing, workload and/or AHT will always deviate from the forecast.
Reporting
The planning department is on top of the figures like none other. It is for that reason that reports will always have to be produced by the planners, if required with additional explanations. In addition, the reports will be used as historic data
Analysis
Why does the implementation deviate from the forecast and what lessons can be learned from that, that contribute to an improvement of the quality of the planning and forecasting products and the corresponding performance of the contact centre. In short, the forecast, the schedule and the implementation have to be analysed.
Advising
The analyses results in recommendations for improvements that have to go to the own department or to other departments with in the organisation. The knowledge and insights of the planners are valuable sources of information for the operations.

Figure 1: The 6-step wheel
In practice, it is often the case that the role of the planner goes no further than publishing the schedule. However, the planning process does not stop there. Subsequently, the newly available information, short-term modifications, management on the day, etc. all have to be dealt with. It is for that reason that the process described above assumes a 6-step wheel. Around that, it is the responsibility of the operations and Human Resources to ensure that the requested labour capacity can actually be supplied at the requested times.
Here we touch on the term pool management. Pool management is the visibility of required capacity in the short, mid and long term. Good pool management is the foundation for a cost-effective organisation and the basis for calm throughout the organisation. Amongst other things, it provides an insight into the times of influx and outflow, gross/net expectations, composition of knowledge and skills in the staff, the degree of flexibility in the event of potential unexpected incidents, and the expected financial health of your contact centre.
"Supportive software must not be a goal in itself... "
Every organisation that is actively searching for interaction with the customer, will come into contact with the described planning process and will be aware of the issues that have arisen in the past. Not only that, but based on the responses, every organisation has made choices about the organisation and the division of tasks and responsibilities. Of course, the choices that have been made with regard to the layout of the organisation also have to be reassessed periodically, with a view to market developments and other business drivers, such as customer expectation and choice of channel. What does the development of home agents, web services and self-service channels mean to your business operations?
The organisation and customer contact strategy will ultimately determine the forecast and planning. Who are your potential customers, how do you communicate with your customers and what are the (budgeted) costs of that? Every forecast is constructed from a number of building blocks and almost every building block is affiliated with the company processes. Consider here marketing campaigns, the dispatch of information and invoices, or radio or television broadcasting time.
The importance of a manageable forecasting and planning process is clear. We increasingly also see that organisations invest in the manageability of the process and in linking the support to the operations. Throughout the world, we see a considerable growth in Workforce Management and Workforce Management Applications as a part of that, which form an increasingly more important part of Performance Management as a whole. Through that, Human Resources, Finance and Marketing are becoming ever clearer and are increasingly linked to the forecasting and planning processes. However, supportive software must not be a goal in itself, but only a means of support for the 6-step wheel.
In order to give an answer to the question: "Planning and forecasting: Strategy or tactic?", we can state that a well-organised forecasting and planning process deserves a central position and role within the organisation, along with the associated tasks and responsibilities.
Modern forecasting and planning therefore requires a strategic approach, that upholds the aforementioned cornerstones of an organisation “customer satisfaction, cost-effectiveness and employee satisfaction"!